The Lindy Effect
The longer an idea has been around without being falsified, the longer its future life expectancy. - Nassim Taleb
That which is “Lindy” is what ages in reverse, i.e., its life expectancy lengthens with time, conditional on survival. - Nassim Nicholas Talab, Skin in the Game
The Lindy Effect is fascinating. Here is a more thorough definition before I tell you why I love it:
The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Nassim makes an excellent point in Skin in the Game: For things to survive a long time, they must be great risk managers.
In other words, if something has been around 100+ years, it likely withstood several extinction level events.
Why is The Lindy Effect relevant to you?
Have you ever asked yourself where you should spend your time or money? If you have, Lindy is an excellent guide.
Example 1: The longest-standing form of marketing/advertising is copywriting. Copywriting was the original way to scale persuasion. The ability to persuade someone through the written word will always be a valuable skill to have. If you are a marketer or want to be—by the Lindy Effect—you should master copywriting.
Example 2: The longest-standing form of wealth building is through the accumulation of real estate. It’s been one of the main symbols of wealth for thousands of years. Our history books rank the largest empires by area of land conquered. And today still, most millionaires in the US acquired their wealth through some form of real estate.
Got more examples of The Lindy Effect? I want to hear them 👇